As we check each weekend for the Magic: the Gathering Standard tournaments online and the recent face-to-face tournaments, we know which of the top deck archetypes made some adjustments to gain the advantage of the metagame. Preparing for these events, of course, includes a prediction of the possible archetype matchups and the proper sideboard plan prepared for them.

The current Standard metagame already identified the top-tier metagame decks, and the next thing to work with is how to be ahead of their predicted gameplay. It could be an endgame card, a color hoser, or any card that will put their plan in shambles. We won’t expect that much given the limited sets and power level of the cards in the format, but catching them off guard will highly get you the win in the end.

One deck archetype example that I will present here and use for my statement above is the Mono-White Aggro, and here below is the decklist.

23 LANDS (24)
4 Faceless Haven
19 Snow-Covered Plains

33 CREATURES
3 Adeline, Resplendent Cathar
3 Brutal Cathar
4 Clarion Spirit
4 Hopeful Initiate
2 Intrepid Adversary
4 Luminarch Aspirant
4 Monk of the Open Hand
2 Reidane, God of the Worthy
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Usher of the Fallen

1 INSTANTS and SORC.
1 Kabira Takedown
3 OTHER SPELLS
3 Paladin Class

SIDEBOARD
1 Brutal Cathar
3 Elite Spellbinder
3 Portable Hole
1 Reidane, God of the Worthy
3 Skyclave Apparition
1 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
3 Valorous Stance

Reference: https://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=33320&d=454262&f=ST

My argument here is the main decked Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, and the question is: Is she worth in the main or on the side? Sure it is good against control. It slows them, but can we weigh how many control decks are expected in the tournament? It has the first strike but it could not pass against stompy Green decks and the mirror match. Also, it still dies to some cheap spot removals.

The deck configuration would be according to the dominant deck in the metagame prediction and would result in a trial-and-error. We analyze the probability of facing more control than aggro decks wherein our card package (Thalia and Paladin Class) will be effective. We site the deck’s performance in the tournament and the result is that it finished 2nd place where the rest of the lower ranks in the Top 8 are mostly control decks. We can conclude that he had predicted correctly the event metagame and won most of their matchups.

Overall, identifying the metagame comes with a risk but it still depends on what dominant decks fall under which category in the format. A good metagame study with a few stats analyses would be a great help.